How the research works
Data
- Prices are always raw Near Mint. No graded (PSA/BGS/CGC) prices are used anywhere. The source is TCGplayer's market price for the Near Mint condition, sampled weekly. When a card has several printings (Unlimited / 1st Edition / Reverse Holo), the one with the most Near Mint sales is tracked, and the others are listed on the card page.
- PriceCharting ungraded prices are used as a cross-check when an API key is configured.
- Europe is a separate market. European prices come from Cardmarket's official daily price guide (EUR). Each card is matched to its Cardmarket product through TCGdex, which links a card's TCGplayer and Cardmarket products; most matches are confirmed by the TCGplayer product id. Cardmarket does not split prices by condition, so EU prices cover all raw copies. They are stored and shown separately, in euros, and never blended into the US Near Mint series.
- European history. Daily Cardmarket set indexes since 20 July 2026 come from TCG Index Tracker; card-level Cardmarket snapshots are stored from every refresh onward.
- History. TCGplayer exposes 52 weeks. Every refresh is stored, so the history in this database grows past one year over time.
- Images come from pkmncards.com, matched on set and card number.
The universe
Vintage is 1999 to 2009 (WOTC, e-Card, EX, Diamond & Pearl, Platinum). Modern is 2019 onward (Hidden Fates, Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet, Mega Evolution). From each set, the most valuable singles are researched, at least 100 per era. The years in between are left out on purpose: they belong to neither the nostalgia market nor the current chase-card market.
The score
Every card starts at 50. Factors add or remove points, and every card page lists exactly which ones applied:
| Who is on the cardBlue-chip Pokemon (Charizard, Pikachu, Umbreon, Mew, Lugia...) +12, popular +6, chase trainers (modern) +6 | up to +12 |
| LiquidityNM copies sold in a year. Vintage: 150+ +8, 50+ +5, 15+ +2, under 5 -8. Modern trades far more, so: 300+ +2, under 40 -6 (1500+ earns nothing extra: high volume has meant high supply) | -8 to +8 |
| TrendSteady 10-80% yearly rise +8, 6-month momentum +5, pullback inside an uptrend +5 (together at most +12); 12-month downtrend -6, 6-month fade -5, down 20%+ in 3 months -5 | -16 to +12 |
| Hype riskUp more than 60% in 3 months -8, more than 150% in a year -4 | up to -12 |
| RiskStable weekly prices +3; volatile -5; a 45%+ drawdown -4; under $20 -4 (fees) | -13 to +3 |
| EuropeSame one-month window in both markets: both rising +3, both falling -3, US rising while EU sales cool -2, US falling while EU sales pick up +2; the card's Cardmarket set index up 15%+ since July +2, down 15%+ -2 | -5 to +5 |
| Vintage scarcityWOTC era +4, low print-run sets (e-Card, late Neo) +5, Gold Star +6, 1st Edition +4 | up to +19 |
| Modern print cycleUnder 6 months old -8, 6-24 months -4, 2+ years +3, 3+ years +4; art cards +4 once the set is a year old; gold / plain secret rares -3 | -11 to +8 |
Top pick 78+ · Accumulate 66-77 · Watch 52-65 · Avoid under 52. A card in a thin market earns no trend points (its "trend" is one or two sales), loses 6 if a several-fold jump looks like a mismatched item, and is rated Watch at most, whatever its score: a price with almost no sales behind it is not a buy signal.
Limits
A year of data cannot see a full cycle (the 2021 boom and 2022 bust, for example); the case studies cover those from published sources. Raw Near Mint prices for rare vintage cards rest on few sales, and the "Thin market" factor flags this. Nothing here is financial advice.