Vintage cards

In US NM (USD), 106 of 119 cards with a 12-month history rose, with a median of +87.1%. The 13 Charizard cards lagged the other blue-chip characters (median +53.7% vs +105.9% for all Tier-A characters); Gengar (8 cards, median +136.0%) and Rayquaza (4 cards, +196.8%) led. Base Set Charizard 004/102 still doubled, from $458.29 to $910.75 (+99%) on 33 NM sales.

The US basket of 41 liquid cards has been flat since mid-August (peak +57.7%, now +55.6%). Europe confirms the pause: on Cardmarket the Base Set (unlimited) index is +7.0% since 20 July after peaking at +71% on 17 September, Jungle is +2.8%, Fossil -3.4% and Shadowless +0.1%; the 28 liquid cards' EU sales run a median 10.6% below their 30-day average. Base Set Charizard shows it most clearly: US NM +5% in 4 weeks, but Cardmarket sales 49% below their 30-day average.

Cardmarket set indexes since 20 July: Neo Genesis +130.8%, Team Rocket +72.6%, Base Set 2 +66.2%, Expedition +90.9%, Aquapolis +88.9%, and most EX and DP/Platinum sets +40% to +113%. EU sales for DP/Platinum cards run a median +57.5% above their 30-day average (21 of 22 up), while the US 4-week change for the same cards is a median 0.0% because most have only a handful of US NM sales. Europe is giving the earlier, broader signal for these sets; they are still too thin in the US to buy on the US price alone.

The median card's US NM price is 64.5% above its Cardmarket trend price (converted at the ECB rate of 1.1204), 47.2% for WOTC cards. Cardmarket's guide includes played copies and, for WOTC cards, also mixes 1st Edition and Unlimited copies, so the gap runs both ways: Base Set Blastoise is $221.29 in US NM vs 41.50 EUR on Cardmarket, but Neo Revelation Entei is $214.02 vs 330.23 EUR. Where the two are implausibly far apart (US NM over 10x EU, or EU over 3x US), we treat the Cardmarket match as wrong and ignore Europe for that card. Use Cardmarket for direction, not as a price you can buy NM copies at.

57 cards sold fewer than 5 US NM copies in a year (median $737.50). Their US price is unchanged in 94% of weeks vs 25% for liquid cards, and weekly volatility is 9.5% vs 2.4%, because one sale resets it. The updated score caps all of them at Watch and flags 'Suspect price' on several-fold jumps that rest on 1-2 sales (the Eevee JR East promo, +4730% on one sale; Rayquaza ex EX Deoxys; Snorlax Lv.X). Their Cardmarket numbers are noisy too: a +31.8% median EU move on these cards is not a buy signal by itself.

In US NM, Avoid-tier cards rose a median +160.5% over 12 months and Top picks +48.5%, because the score subtracts points for thin markets, spikes and runs above 150%. That is deliberate: Top picks have a median of 50 US NM sales a year against 2 for Avoid, and their gains are the ones a seller could actually have realised. Our picks stay in the liquid Top pick / Accumulate group, preferring cards where Europe confirms the US trend.