Modern cards
2019 onward: Hidden Fates, Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution. Supply is still being opened, and demand follows art and hype.
What the research concludes
US NM (TCGplayer, USD), across 142 modern cards: the median 12-month change is +19% (103 of 137 cards with a full year rose), the median 6-month change +8%, and the median 3-month change -12%, with only 20 cards up over three months. A median-card index built from the US weekly prices bottomed at 86.7 on 2025-12-29, peaked at 134.3 on 2026-06-22 and stood at 119.6 on 2026-10-05. Europe (Cardmarket, EUR), for the 133 cards with a Cardmarket price: the median card's 7-day average sell is 4.6% below its 30-day average, and the median set index is 8.5% lower than on 2026-07-20. 45 cards fell in both markets over the last month and none rose in both, so the pullback is real and not a US-only effect. Set age explains most of the spread, and Europe shows the same split. US NM: sets 24+ months old are +22% over 12 months, sets under 24 months -12%. Cardmarket: set indexes since July are a median -7.6% for the older sets and -14.1% for the newer ones. The leaders were Sword & Shield Trainer Gallery and Galarian Gallery cards (US NM median +31% over 12 months, all 13 up), Hidden Fates and Shining Fates shinies, and Scarlet & Violet illustration rares. The laggards were 2025-2026 special illustration rares outside Prismatic Evolutions (US NM median -35% over 12 months) and every Mega Evolution card. On price level the two markets are close: the median US NM price is 4.2% above the Cardmarket trend at the ECB rate.
US NM: cards from sets released 24+ months ago are up a median 22% over 12 months (89 of 107 rose); cards from newer sets are down 12% (14 of 35 rose). Phantasmal Flames has a median 12-month change of -65%, and Mega Charizard X ex 109/094 is -81% at $20.01. Cardmarket: the set indexes of the under-24-month sets are a median 14.1% lower than on 20 Jul 2026, with Destined Rivals -25.5% and Phantasmal Flames -26.8%. Older sets are a median 7.6% lower. All 12 Mega-era cards score Avoid or Watch.
In the last month 45 of the 133 cards with a Cardmarket price fell in both markets (US NM 4-week change and Cardmarket 7-day vs 30-day average both below -3%), and none rose in both. The median Cardmarket move is -4.6% for all modern cards, -3.1% for Sword & Shield, -5.4% for Scarlet & Violet and -9.3% for Mega Evolution, the same order as the US NM 3-month falls (-8%, -14%, -29%). Europe is not leading the market back up yet, so the data favours gradual entries rather than buying all at once.
Since 20 Jul 2026 the Cardmarket set index is down 24.3% for Prismatic Evolutions and 17.6% for 151, the two sets reprinted most often in 2025-2026. Evolving Skies is down 31.5%, but its US NM cards held (median +21% over 6 months), so the two markets disagree on that set. At card level, though, Europe is buying the blue-chip alt arts this month. Cardmarket 7-day sales are above their 30-day average by 26% for Gengar VMAX alt art, 26% for Giratina V alt art, 18% for Umbreon VMAX alt art and 31% for Charizard V alt art 154/172. In the US these cards were flat to down over the same month.
US NM: all 13 Trainer Gallery / Galarian Gallery cards rose over 12 months, with a median of +31%, and they trade a median 590 NM copies a year. Pikachu V TG16 is +47% and Arceus VSTAR GG70 +57%. Cardmarket: their median move is -3.7% this month, which is milder than Scarlet & Violet. Their median US NM price is only 1% above the Cardmarket trend, so neither market is far out of line.
US NM: 2025-2026 SIRs outside Prismatic Evolutions are down a median 35% over 12 months (1 of 12 up). The 151 SIRs are down over 6 months: Charizard ex 199/165 -20%, Venusaur ex -28%, Zapdos ex -22%. Illustration rares are up a median 45% (16 of 17 up); 151 Charmander is +71% and Squirtle +68%. Prismatic Evolutions SIRs are +8% to +40% over 12 months in the US NM data. Umbreon ex is -12% over 6 months, and on Cardmarket it sells 7% below its 30-day average inside a set index that is down 24%.
The median US NM price is 4.2% above the Cardmarket trend at the ECB rate, so most cards are priced alike in the two markets. Some are far apart. Rayquaza V alt art is 44% dearer in the US, and Mimikyu VMAX Trainer Gallery (Brilliant Stars), Perrin and Greninja ex (Twilight Masquerade) are 66-72% dearer. Giratina V alt art is 34% cheaper in the US and Gengar VMAX alt art 21% cheaper. Cardmarket prices are not split by condition, so a big gap is a fact to show, not an arbitrage.
Analyst picks
Garchomp V Trainer Gallery (Astral Radiance, 2022), score 78. US NM: +22% over 12 months, +16% over 6 months, and at $73.89 it is 20% below its $92.10 high with 466 sales a year. Cardmarket (EUR 56.02) is falling too (-9% vs 30-day average), so this is a dip in both markets on a long-out-of-print card.
Mimikyu VMAX Trainer Gallery (Brilliant Stars), score 81. US NM: +46% over 12 months, +33% over 6 months, $74.38, 10% below its high with 3.1% weekly volatility and 543 sales. Cardmarket (EUR 39.85) is holding (+4% vs its 30-day average) while most of the market falls.
Eevee illustration rare (Twilight Masquerade 188/167), score 83. US NM: +17% over 12 months, 1171 sales a year, $81.45, 16% below its 52-week high. It is a blue-chip character at a discount and is priced almost the same on Cardmarket (EUR 69.94, US NM 4% above).
Pikachu VMAX Trainer Gallery (Lost Origin), the top-scored modern card at 89. US NM: +29% over 12 months, $106.12, 16% below its $126.96 high, 521 sales a year. Cardmarket sales run 19% above their 30-day average (EUR 106.28), so Europe is buying the US dip.
Umbreon VMAX Trainer Gallery (Brilliant Stars), score 84. It is the cheapest modern Umbreon art card: US NM +24% over 12 months at $103.24, 17% below its $124.04 high, 612 sales a year. The two markets are priced alike (Cardmarket EUR 88.29, US NM 4% above).
Pikachu V Trainer Gallery (Lost Origin), score 84. US NM: +47% over 12 months and +23% over 6 months, $117.75, 16% off its $140.09 high, 566 sales a year. It sits 1% below the Cardmarket trend (EUR 106.23), so it is not a US-only price.
Rayquaza VMAX Trainer Gallery (Silver Tempest), score 79. US NM: +31% over 12 months, +38% over 6 months, now $186.46 after a -14% three-month dip, 453 sales a year.
Galarian Moltres V alt art (Chilling Reign 177/198), score 79. US NM: +17% over 12 months, +29% over 6 months, +1% over 3 months while the market fell, with 1.8% weekly volatility, 5% off its high at $237.15. The Chilling Reign index on Cardmarket is up 2% since July, one of the few rising sets.
Lugia V alt art (Silver Tempest 186/195), score 85. It is the most liquid $500+ alt art here: US NM 342 sales a year, +12% over 12 months, +22% over 6 months, -2% over 3 months at $514.00. Cardmarket sales are flat against their 30-day average (EUR 415.81).
Giratina V alt art (Lost Origin 186/196), score 79. US NM: +35% over 12 months, +26% over 6 months, only an 8% max drawdown, $847.55. Cardmarket sales are 26% above their 30-day average, and the EU trend (EUR 1144.86) is well above the US price, so the US NM price is 34% below Europe.
Gengar VMAX alt art (Fusion Strike 271/264), score 83. US NM: +30% over 12 months, +24% over 6 months, 2.1% weekly volatility, $1024.03. Cardmarket sales run 26% above their 30-day average (EUR 1159.86), and the US price is 21% below Europe.
Mew ex SIR (Paldean Fates 232/091), score 83. US NM: +38% over 12 months, 424 sales a year, and at $872.64 it is 20% below its $1089.46 high after a -19% three-month dip.
| Card | Score | US NM | 1y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Milotic exSV08: Surging Sparks · 237/191 | 65Watch | $115 | +0% |
 |
Origin Forme Palkia VSWSH10: Astral Radiance · 167/189 · Alternate Full Art | 65Watch | $85.33 | +0% |
 |
Greninja exSV06: Twilight Masquerade · 214/167 | 65Watch | $330 | -11% |
 |
Leafeon exSV: Prismatic Evolutions · 144/131 | 64Watch | $318 | +8% |
 |
RaltsSV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set · 211/198 | 63Watch | $42.45 | +48% |
 |
Umbreon StarCelebrations: Classic Collection · 17/17 | 63Watch | $85.35 | +3% |
 |
Reshiram exSV: White Flare · 173/086 | 63Watch | $478 | +30% |
 |
Blastoise exSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · 200/165 | 62Watch | $124 | +50% |
 |
Dachsbun exSV07: Stellar Crown · 169/142 | 62Watch | $75.41 | +145% |
 |
Raging Bolt exSV05: Temporal Forces · 208/162 | 62Watch | $62.71 | -6% |
 |
Pikachu exSV08: Surging Sparks · 238/191 | 62Watch | $286 | -18% |
 |
Zekrom exSV: Black Bolt · 172/086 | 61Watch | $611 | +33% |
 |
VictiniSV: Black Bolt · 171/086 | 61Watch | $627 | +26% |
 |
VictiniSV: White Flare · 172/086 | 61Watch | $555 | +29% |
 |
DrowzeeSV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set · 210/198 | 60Watch | $47.80 | +45% |
 |
Pikachu exME: Ascended Heroes · 276/217 | 60Watch | $886 | - |
 |
Reshiram exSV: White Flare · 166/086 | 60Watch | $181 | -9% |
 |
MagikarpSV02: Paldea Evolved · 203/193 | 60Watch | $357 | -5% |
 |
Mewtwo VPokemon GO · 072/078 · Alternate Full Art | 59Watch | $56.58 | -33% |
 |
Altaria exSV04: Paradox Rift · 253/182 | 57Watch | $46.27 | -1% |
 |
MorpekoShining Fates: Shiny Vault · SV044/SV122 | 57Watch | $21.41 | +308% |
 |
Butterfree VMAXSWSH03: Darkness Ablaze · 190/189 · Secret | 56Watch | $17.77 | +49% |
 |
M Rayquaza EXCelebrations: Classic Collection · 76/108 | 53Watch | $35.97 | -27% |
 |
Zapdos exSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · 202/165 | 52Watch | $83.55 | +2% |